According to the annual report of the Foreign Intelligence Service of Armenia (SVR), a "unfreezing" of the country's membership in the CSTO in 2026 is unlikely, while its assessment of the prospects for relations remains unchanged from last year's.
Furthermore, the SVR considers a long-term and stable resolution to the war between Russia and Ukraine in 2026 unlikely, and notes the high probability of repeated attacks between Israel and Iran, which creates additional threats to Armenia's security.
The report also assesses a military escalation between Armenia and Azerbaijan in 2026 as "almost impossible," predicting progress on border demarcation, trade and economic initiatives, intersocio-political dialogue, and humanitarian issues.
