Martin Galstyan, Governor of the Central Bank of Armenia, stated that a potential increase in the cost of Russian gas could have extremely severe economic consequences for the republic. The regulator factors this possibility into its calculations but does not currently view it as a primary scenario.

"It implies something apocalyptic, requiring a response that would need to be more robust and unconventional," Galstyan acknowledged.

According to the Central Bank chief, the regulator is currently continuing its calculations and decision-making processes as usual, while simultaneously taking into account the likelihood of serious economic challenges.

As Galstyan noted, a rise in gas prices could impact both inflation and economic growth.

"It could also lead to a certain 'Type B' risk associated with an economic downturn," the Central Bank head suggested.

He estimates that the initial impact would be a rise in the general price level. Since gas is used not only by households but also by businesses, a price hike could drive up production costs for greenhouse produce, industrial goods, and other products.

Armenia currently receives Russian gas at a price of $177.5 per 1,000 cubic meters. By comparison, the market price of gas in Europe can reach $600–1,000 for the same volume. Armenia purchases over 2 billion cubic meters of fuel from Russia annually.

Preferential terms for Russian gas supplies were established in a 2013 Armenian-Russian agreement. Under the terms of the deal, Gazprom waived a 30% export duty, bringing the price down to $189 per 1,000 cubic meters. The price was $165 in 2015 and $150 between 2016 and 2019. In May 2026, Russian Presidential Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov, commenting on the existing preferential terms, stated that their funding is effectively covered by the Russian side.

"It doesn't come out of thin air; it is funded by the Russian Federation. The Armenian people are a fraternal people. But it is at our expense—we need to call things by their proper names," Peskov emphasized.

In late May, it was revealed that Russian Energy Minister Sergey Tsivilev had sent a letter to Armenia's Ministry of Territorial Administration and Infrastructure. The document raised the possibility of unilaterally suspending or denouncing the agreement on the supply of gas, petroleum products, and rough diamonds—concluded in December 2013—should Yerevan persist in its course toward EU accession. Against this backdrop, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan stated in May that there were no grounds for raising the price of Russian gas.

"Armenia and Russia have an existing agreement, and it is mutually beneficial. We reached clear strategic understandings regarding the gas price, and they must be honored," he said.

In September, Pashinyan focused on the issue of how the final cost of fuel is determined within Armenia. He noted that the price of gas for domestic consumers remains high, despite the relatively low cost of Russian fuel at the border.

"Gas is not cheap in Armenia. Compared to other countries, Armenia has the highest pricing structure for the journey from the border to the end consumer," the Prime Minister said.

Pashinyan also stated that Yerevan would continue to seek alternative gas sources, regardless of whether the Russian tariff changes.

"There is no sector in which Yerevan will not pursue diversification. If there is an opportunity to obtain gas from a second source or increase supply volumes from there, we will take that path. If there is an opportunity to obtain gas from a third or fourth source, we will pursue that path as well," Pashinyan declared. Amidst discussions regarding a potential hike in the price of Russian gas, a proposal has been made in the Armenian parliament to review the lease terms for the Russian military base in Gyumri. Vilen Gabrielyan, head of the parliamentary committee on defense and security, described this issue as a potential bargaining chip for Yerevan in its negotiations with Moscow.

"This is not the only lever or tool at Yerevan's disposal," the MP noted.

According to him, the Armenian side bears the majority of the costs associated with the base's premises and maintenance.

Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova had previously commented on statements from the Armenian side regarding a possible withdrawal from the CSTO and the EAEU should gas prices rise. She urged against relying on emotional assessments and highlighted the disparity between the cost of Russian gas for Armenia and prices on the European market. She noted that the republic receives fuel at $177.50 per 1,000 cubic meters, whereas prices in Europe can reach $600.