In Azerbaijan, former Presidential Chief of Staff Ramiz Mehdiyev has been given a 14-year suspended prison sentence. The 88-year-old, a long-time associate of Heydar Aliyev, was found guilty of high treason, attempting to seize power by force, accepting bribes, and money laundering. According to investigators, he was plotting a coup and attempting to secure support from Moscow. *Novaya Gazeta Europe* notes that the charges implicate not only the former official but also opposition leader Ali Karimli.
News of Mehdiyev’s detention first emerged in the autumn of 2025, though Azerbaijani authorities did not confirm the information for several months. It was not until February 12, 2026, that the State Security Service announced that the former official had allegedly plotted a violent change of government alongside other individuals—including Karimli, the leader of the Azerbaijan Popular Front Party. The Baku Court on Grave Crimes handed down the sentence against Mehdiyev on October 22, but the news only reached the media five days later.
According to the security service, Mehdiyev had drafted a proposal to overhaul the state governance system, suggesting that the powers held by a single president be transferred to a "State Council." Investigators claimed that the former official intended to send this plan to Moscow and had discussed its contents with Karimli. The opposition leader himself, according to the publication, was under constant surveillance and effectively cut off from the outside world.
Karimli was arrested in November 2025. For years prior to this, he had been one of the most consistent opponents of Ilham Aliyev, boycotting elections and participating in unsanctioned protests. A preliminary hearing in his case is scheduled for November 3. *Novaya Gazeta Europe* suggests that a conviction for Mekhtiyev could predetermine the outcome of the proceedings against the opposition leader.
Arif Yunusov, an Azerbaijani political analyst who was forced to flee the country due to persecution by the authorities, doubts that the charges reflect a genuine conspiracy. In his view, the primary objective of the case was to eliminate Kerimli and publicly humiliate a former associate of the ruling family.
"Russia serves as mere window dressing in this case," Yunusov told *Novaya Gazeta Europe*.
He believes that Moscow’s involvement is being used to substantiate the conspiracy narrative, even though official statements from the security services do not explicitly accuse Russia itself.
The case also mentions the Union of Azerbaijani Organizations of Russia, known as the "Union of Billionaires." Established in 2012, its leadership included former Azerbaijani Deputy Prime Minister Abbas Abbasov, who resides in Moscow. In 2013, pro-government media accused the group of intending to bring to power a candidate more favorable to the Kremlin: the screenwriter and playwright Rustam Ibragimbekov. Ibragimbekov participated in the presidential campaign as a candidate for the National Council of Democratic Forces, rather than for the Union. Now, Azerbaijani security officials are linking this history to the alleged plans by Mekhtiyev and Kerimli to seize power.
*Novaya Gazeta Europe* also views the case against the former official as part of an internal power struggle within the Azerbaijani elite. For decades, Mekhtiyev was one of the most influential figures in the inner circle of Heydar Aliyev—the father of the current president. Following his resignation in 2019, experts linked the reshuffling of the government to the rising influence of a faction close to First Lady Mehriban Aliyeva and her family.
Journalist Rauf Mirkadyrov interprets the verdict as a clash between two models of governance. The old system—personified by Mehtiyev—relied on regional elites and their own networks of influence. The current system, by his assessment, is built around the singular authority of the president and the officials he appoints.
"With this verdict against Mehtiyev, Ilham Aliyev is bringing an end to the era of 'Heydarism,'" Mirkadyrov suggests.
*Kavkazsky Uzel* (Caucasian Knot) also gathered various reactions to the verdict against Mehtiyev. Those interviewed pointed to the closed nature of the judicial proceedings, as well as the disparity in how the former high-ranking official is being treated compared to opposition figures who remain in custody.
Political analyst Samira Gasymly drew attention to the duration of the legal proceedings: the trial of Mekhtiyev lasted about a month, whereas the judicial investigation into the case of her husband, political analyst Azer Gasymly, took nine months and concluded with a 12-year prison sentence.
"Even though Mekhtiyev was found guilty of such serious crimes, he was allowed to remain at liberty," she told the publication.
Gasymly also pointed to other imprisoned journalists and politicians who, she noted, have been denied any change to their pre-trial detention status, despite suffering from serious health issues.
Political analyst Elman Fattakh questioned the justification for a suspended sentence. In his view, the court's decision contradicts the fact that Mekhtiyev was found guilty of grave crimes against the state.
"It would seem, then, that an attempted coup d'état and high treason pose no danger to the public," Fattakh remarked.
Natig Adilov, head of the press service for the Popular Front Party of Azerbaijan, linked the Mekhtiyev case to the arrest of the party’s leader, Ali Karimli. He asserts that the allegations of a purported conspiracy were used as a pretext to target the opposition figure, though no evidence could be found to link Karimli to the former head of the Presidential Administration.
"It is clear that there was no connection between Karimli and Mekhtiyev—they couldn't even fabricate false evidence to support such a link—which is why their cases were separated," Adilov told *Kavkazsky Uzel* (Caucasian Knot).
